Refugees and migration in Germany: an interview with IAB Director Joachim Möller

conducted by Hannah Ormerod

Hannah Ormerod: Professor Möller, I’d now like to talk to you about the issue of refugees and migration in Germany, and what it means for the labour market. The dramatic inflow of refugees has been a major focus of public debate throughout Europe and indeed throughout the world. This is particularly true for Germany, which has attracted more refugees than any other European country. Can you say something about the dimension of this inflow: how many refugees have arrived in Germany in recent months and how might these inflows develop in future?

Prof. Joachim Möller: The refugees are really a hot topic in the labour market debate in Germany at the time, as one can imagine. In 2015, we had a net immigration flow of 890,000 refugees, and in 2016, our current expectation is roughly 300,000 – might be a little bit less, because there has been a huge reduction in the inflow of immigrants during the last months. We think that, in the end, we will have additional 700,000 people that have to be integrated in the German labour market.

Hannah Ormerod: What impact will these new arrivals have on the labour market in Germany both in the short term, but also in the long term?

Prof. Joachim Möller: We have some data for the past integration of refugees and migrants in the German labour market, and it seems to be that this time – or this group of refugees that arrived last year and this year – are doing a little bit worse than the former cohorts of migrants. The most actual estimate is that roughly 10 per cent of the refugees available on the labour market are finding a job. So, it takes time to integrate the refugees. After five years, the number is already 50 per cent, or can be expected to be 50 per cent, when you see the number of the past. And after 10 or 15 years, the employment rates of refugees have more or less the same level as for the German population. So, it takes time, and I think in every country it takes time to integrate these people. But, in the end, it will be possible. I think we should keep the aim of integrating as many of these people as possible. What we have is evidence – we have a new survey – the first representative survey for migrants or immigrants, refugees; and it shows that they are really highly motivated to take up a job. This is true for men and for women. This is, I think, very important – they are really inclined to take up an employment – more than 90 per cent or so. What the survey also tells us is that the values are in many aspects astonishingly similar to the values of the typical German population. For example, democracy is of very high value not only for the Germans, but also for the refugees. Those who came here, they differ from the population of their home countries. There is some evidence of the World Values Survey, for example, showing that, say, the importance of religion in their home countries is much higher than among the refugees that came to Germany.
Another important point is that this first representative study shows that the education status is better than we expected earlier. Most of the people from, for example, Syria, they spent quite a long time at school. This is also true for men and women, so this is also good news, say, for the expectation for the integration process. But, of course, it will be a huge challenge for the German society, but I think it can be managed.

Hannah Ormerod: What does this development mean for the domestic population? Does a higher number of refugees imply worse job chances for people born in Germany and particularly for low-qualified people?

Prof. Joachim Möller: The studies in this field more or less tell the same story. A typical German worker should not fear the migrants, because the competition is not there – they are not competing for the same sort of jobs. This is, I think, the general result the studies show. There are no effects on wages, almost no effects on unemployment. Yet, there is a “but”. The “but” is: this is only true for, say, German qualified workers. For the non-German workers, low-qualified workers that are already in the country, this means of course more competition. And they are perhaps to some extent suffering – lower wages or higher unemployment could be the result of this sort of competition. But a typical German worker should not fear the refugees and the integration. And in the intermediate or long term, there are adjustment processes of the aggregated economy – the refugees are also consumers, so they are contributing also to the aggregated demand, and the GDP is increasing because of their needs and expenditures, and so, in the end, there will be no effect. Thus, we are only talking about an adjustment process, which takes some years, one should see. That is not from one day to the other that we can really overcome the pr